Evo Takes Over

After a dramatic and colorful ceremony Saturday at the ruins of Tiwanaku, the most sacred site to the region's Aymara and Quechua peoples, Evo Morales was inaugurated yesterday as Bolivia's first indigenous president. Over 40,000 people made the long journey up to Tiwanaku, near Lake Titicaca, to be present for the historic event. It has been more than 500 years since this "coronation" ceremony - elevating Evo to the status of supreme leader of the continent's indigenous peoples - was last performed, and judging by the pictures and the newspaper reports, it was a stirring (and globally significant) event.

Reading an assortment of articles in Clarín, La Nacion, and the Buenos Aires Herald yesterday, I found myself thinking about the complex interplay between power, empire, culture, religion, and history. In many ways, Evo's rise to power is a profound symbol to mark the end of a long era of Bolivian exploitation and penury: first at the hands of Spain during its ruthless colonization in pursuit of silver in the mines at Potosí, later by the Bolivian-born descendents of Spanish colonialists, and most recently because of the harsh economic conditions forced upon the country by the IMF as well as the irrational and costly "war on drugs" being bankrolled and fought by the U.S.

A resource-rich country, Bolivia by rights should be a stable, functioning state. But with over 70% of the population living in poverty, South America's poorest nation is yet another example of the "Paradox of Plenty", the resource curse that keeps so many of the world's naturally bountiful countries - think Congo, Nigeria, Indonesia - also among its most impoverished. Set against a history of colonialism, oppression, and crushing poverty, Saturday's ceremony seemed like it could usher in a new era in Latin American politics, and that's somwhat the way it has - haltingly, cautiously - been reported in the papers. At yesterday's inauguration, Evo declared that 500 years of colonial oppression were over, and that Bolivia's indigenous majority should expect to be in power for the next 500.

But the story is not so simple. Power is a tricky thing. It is clearly good for Evo to have won a peaceful and democratic election, and good for him to have risen to the presidency on a wave of unprecedented popular support, especially among those who have been historically marginalized and shut out of the political process. But now the arduous task of governing is before him, and it's obviously quite risky to place so many hopes and aspirations at the feet of one man and in the actions of one presidential administration.

Here's the rub: If Evo kowtows to the multinational corporations which provide so much of the investment capital Bolivia needs in order to maintain good standing in the global marketplace, he runs the risk of disappointing or angering his own base. These are the people who took to the streets, with Evo as their leader, to topple the Lozada and Mesa presidencies. They may take to the streets yet again, frustrated by the lack of radical change or the slow pace of progress, but this time without a popular and charismatic leader to rally behind. The country could be thrown into political chaos, and economic crisis would soon follow.

But if Evo remains true to the MAS platform that won him the presidency - including the nationalization of gas reserves and the total legalization of coca cultivation - he could provoke a severe backlash among Bolivia's many foreign investors and creditors, as well as the wrath of the U.S., which maintains a profoundly illogical and unrealistic - yet serious - commitment to coca eradication in Bolivia.

With the continent's second largest gas reserves after Venezuela, Bolivia should, in theory, be able to follow that country's path to relative prosperity. Like Chávez, Evo could use revenues from the sale of gas to fund social programs and re-distribute a significant chunk of wealth to many of the nation's poorest citizens. But without a strong state-run gas company like PDVSA in Venezuela, Evo can't afford to scare away the foreign corporations who maintain the infrastructure and pump the gas. Will he be able to strike the right balance in re-negotiating contracts so that Bolivia gets a much better deal, the radical MAS faction is satisfied that the multinationals have been put in their place, yet these companies stay invested in the country and don't sue Bolivia in international trade courts?

Moreover, will the spectre of cheap cocaine flooding American cities eclipse all other issues in the eyes of the Bush administration, provoking a conflict - military or otherwise - that will put Bolivia's anti-poverty and social justice aspirations on hold, or worse?

No doubt Evo has a very fine line to walk in the coming months. I'm eager to get to Bolivia, where, with much-improved Spanish skills, I can hopefully begin to explore some of these issues in greater depth. For now, I wish Evo the best, and will be following his actions closely in the Argentine press these next few weeks. Stay tuned...